How Far Has the #BarExam Fallen

25 May

Comparison with February 2013 scores.  ** Please note that all 2017 passage rates are still more or less unofficial. A few states each year will change the rates before the ‘end-of-the-year’ report by the NCBEX because of people who were re-counted, finally passed some previously uncompleted portion, etc. Or (as with Maine and Kentucky), they tell us how many people registered for the exam, but not how many actually took it.  But in general these numbers are pretty reliable. Even when the rates do change, they normally change by less than 2-3%.  This year, the only one I’m really unsure how much the change will be is Maine. It is changing over to the UBE in July, and it is possible a lot of registered applicants skipped the Feb. exam in favor of the UBE upcoming.  For the other states, I’m think they are pretty reliable. 

Unknown (No 2017 Stats Posted)
Down 1% – 10%
Down 10% or More
Up
Unchanged

  • Alabama (Down 6%)
    • 2013 ~ 47%
    • 2017 ~ 41.3%
    • Sitting at 41-42% for 3 years now.
  • Alaska (Down 1%)
    • 2013 ~ 65%
    • 2017 ~ 64% 
    • For 5 years now ~ even years it goes up, odd years down to 64-65%. VERY Unstable (64% – 77% – this is the lowest so far since 2013)
  • Arizona (Down 15%)
    • 2013 ~ 66%
    • 2017 ~ 41%
    • Going down every year by a large #.
  • Arkansas (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 61%
    • 2017 ~ Currently Unknown
    • Varies between 61-65%. Last year sharp drop to 51%
  • California (Down 7%)
    • 2013 ~ 41%
    • 2017 ~ 34.5%
    • Has been dropping steadily since 2014.
  • Colorado (Down 7%)
    • 2013 ~ 69%
    • 2017 ~ 62%
    • Fell to and has been holding steady at 61-62% since 2015.
  • Connecticut (Down 22%)
    • 2013 ~ 72%
    • 2017 ~ 50%
    • Falling steadily since 2014.
  • Delaware (No Exam in February)
  • DC (Down 1%)
    • 2013 ~ 47%
    • 2017 ~ 46%
    • Except for 2015, DC has held steady at 46-47%
  • Florida (Down 10%)
    • 2013 (67%)
    • 2017 (57%)
    • Very Unstable, ranging from 45% (2016) to 73% (2014) 
  • Georgia (Down 15%)
    • 2013 ~ 66%
    • 2017 ~ 51%
    • Falling steadily every year since 2013
  • Hawai’i (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 66%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Fell from 2013 to 2015, then jumped 10% in 2016 to 73% passing. Not sure if the upwards or downward trend will continue.   In 2016 it was 73%, but in 2015 it was 62%.
  • Idaho (Down 6%)
    • 2013 ~ 75%
    • 2017 ~ 69%
    • Falling steadily every year since 2013
  • Illinois (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 75%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Falling steadily since 2014 (and 2014 and 2013 were the same 75%, so basically it’s fallen since 2013).  In 2016, it was 63%
  • Indiana (Down 21%)
    • 2013 ~ 69%
    • 2017 ~ 48%
    • Up and Down from 2013 – 2015.  Falling sharply in 2016 (down 12%) and 2017 (down another 7%).
  • Iowa (Down 6%)
    • 2013 ~ 75%
    • 2017 ~ 69% 
    • Falling steadily since 2014.
  • Kansas (Down 24%)
    • 2013 ~ 90%
    • 2017 ~ 66%
    • Fell steadily from 2013 to 2015.  Then in 2016, fell sharply by 25% to an overall rate of 56%.  Then in 2017 went back up to 66% (still much lower than 2015).  
    • In summary, my guess is it’s still going down next year. 
  • Kentucky (Unknown*)
    • 2013 ~ 74%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • **Looks bad this year. Comparing only applicants to passers (no idea how many simply didn’t take the test), passage rate of 49.5%. But I don’t expect the number to be too different, since it’s the same exam as normal for Kentucky.
    • In 2016, the rate was 78%. It’s been sitting at around 74% – 78% from 2013-2016, so I’d expect it to return to that range. This year was a bit of a surprise and concern. 
  • Louisiana (Up 19%)
    • 2013 ~ 41%
    • 2017 ~ 60% 
    • Steadily rising from 2013 to 2016.  But this year (2017) it fell 6% which raises concerns it will start the downward trend now.  Not sure what to expect.
  • Maine (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 68%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Unofficially (comparing only applicants to passers) the rate is 32.2%.  But Maine is changing to the UBE in July, so I’ve been told a lot of people who registered ended up not taking it.  Usually the rate has been between 59-60% and I’d expect it to go back around there. 
  • Maryland (Down 5%)
    • 2013 ~ 63%
    • 2017 ~ 58%
    • Bouncing up and down between 47% and 63%. Been in the 50%s for 3 of the last 5 years.
  • Massachusetts (Down 16%)
    • 2013 ~ 63%
    • 2017 ~ 47.8%
    • Falling steadily for 5 years.
  • Michigan (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 62%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Been bouncing between 58% and 65% falling mostly in the 62-65% range.  
    • In 2016 it was 65%
  • Minnesota (Down 19%)
    • 2013 ~ 71%
    • 2017 ~ 52%
    • Falling by about 10% every 2 years.  This was the steepest drop so far though. 
  • Mississippi (Down 30%)
    • 2013 ~ 66%
    • 2017 ~ 35.7%
    • Went up in 2014, then has been falling ever since.  This still was a REALLY sharp drop from 2016’s 65%.  So I’m expecting it to go back up to around 55%-60% next year.
  • Missouri (Down 17%)
    • 2013 ~ 82%
    • 2017 ~ 66%
    • The scores have been falling steadily every year. If it follows the previous patter of the last 5 years, it’ll be around 61% maybe for 2018? 
  • Montana (Down 30%)
    • 2013 ~ 81%
    • 2017 ~ 51%
    • It fell by 14% in 2014, then went up again about 7% in 2015. Since 2015, it’s fallen by quite a bit each year. 
  • Nebraska (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 62%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Sharp drop to 43% in 2014, but since then it’s held steady at 59%.  In 2016 it was 59%
  • Nevada (Down 6%)
    • 2013 ~ 54%
    • 2017 ~ 49%
    • Went up until 2015, then started to fall ever since.
  • New Hampshire (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 57%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Scores keep bouncing, very uncertain. Ranging from 56% to 75%. In 2016, it was 64%
  • New Jersey (Down 18%)
    • 2013 ~ 59%
    • 2014 ~ 41%
    • Falling steadily since 2014.
  • New Mexico (Down 18%)
    • 2013 ~ 85%
    • 2017 ~ 67%
    • Falling steadily every year since 2013
  • New York (Down 6%)
    • 2013 ~ 50%
    • 2017 ~ 44%
    • Falling every year until 2016 (40%).  Then rose this year back up to 44%)
  • North Carolina (Down 13%)
    • 2013 ~ 49%
    • 2017 ~ 36.7%
    • Falling steadily since 2014.
  • North Dakota (Down 24%)
    • 2013 ~ 63%
    • 2017 ~ 39%
    • Falling every year since 2013.
  • Ohio (Down 16%)
    • 2013 ~ 67%
    • 2017 ~ 51%
    • Falling since 2014.
  • Oklahoma (Up 4%)
    • 2013 ~ 77%
    • 2017 ~ 81%
    • This was unexpected. For the last three years, the passage rate has sat at 67-69%. Then suddenly in 2017 it jumped up to 81%. I actually expect it to fall back to 65-69% next year.
  • Oregon (Down 2%)
    • 2013 ~ 69%
    • 2017 ~ 67%
    • Falling steadily through 2016 (60%). Then jumped back up to 67%. Not sure, but I expect it to go down a little bit next year. 
  • Pennsylvania (Down 7%)
    • 2013 ~ 61%
    • 2017 ~ 54%
    • Bouncing a bit, but slowly falling overall.  Might go up a few % next year and then fall some more the year after.  Kind of uncertain.
  • Rhode Island (Down 10%)
    • 2013 ~ 55%
    • 2017 ~ 45%
    • Falling significantly since 2014.
  • South Carolina (Down 13%)
    • 2013 ~ 73%
    • 2017 ~ 60%
    • Going up and down, but downward overall. Since it went up in 2017, I’d expect it to fall in 2018.
  • South Dakota (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 76%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Going down a lot overall, ranging from 76% (2013) to 26% (2015).  In 2016 it was 43%.
  • Tennessee (Down 13%)
    • 2013 ~ 59%
    • 2017 ~ 46.8%
    • Falling steadily since 2014
  • Texas (Down 26%)
    • 2013 ~ 74%
    • 2017 ~ 48%
    • Falling steadily since 2013
  • Utah (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 77%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Rising generally, but fell in 2016 by 14%.  In 2016 it was 66%
  • Vermont (Down 31%)
    • 2013 ~ 83%
    • 2017  52%
    • Erratic. Fell to 47% between 2013 – 2015. When up in 2016 to 61%. Then back down in 2017 to 52%.
  • Virginia (Down 4%)
    • 2013 ~ 57%
    • 2017 ~ 53%
    • Pretty steady around 57-59%. Not sure why so low this year.
  • Washington (Steady)
    • 2013 ~ 58%
    • 2017 ~ 57.8%
    • Had a high in 2014 (70.9%) but has since been falling steadily to below 2013 levels. Expect it to keep falling in 2018
  • West Virginia (Down 10%)
    • 2013 ~ 62%
    • 2017 ~ 52%
    • Falling Steadily each year through 2016 (51%). Went up 1% this year to 52%, but expect it to probably stay around the same 50-53% next year or fall again.
  • Wisconsin (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 85%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Falling steadily since 2013. Was 56% in 2016.
  • Wyoming (Unknown)
    • 2013 ~ 82%
    • 2017 ~ Unknown
    • Erratically bouncing between low 80% and mid 60%.  Since it was 62% in 2016, I’m betting it was a little higher for 2017. Then will be lower in the 60%s again for 2018.  

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